Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change

  • NOAA. Atlantic hurricane seasonAccessed May 25, 2021. Available at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl (2020).

  • NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). US Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, Accessed August 3, 2021. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/.

  • IPCC. in Climate change 2013: The physical-scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [eds Stocker, T. F. et al.]. (Cambridge University Press, 2013).

  • Knutson T, Kossin JP, Mears C, Perlwitz J & Wehner MF Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (Eds. Wuebbles, DJ et al.) 114-132 (US Global Change Research Program, 2017).

  • Camargo, SJ et al. Features of tropical cyclone model climatology and the large-scale environment. J. Clim. 334463-4487 (2020).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Knutson, T. et al. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Mapping. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 1001987-2007 (2019).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Kossin, JP, Knapp, KR, Olander, TL & Velden, CS Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades. Proc. Natl. Acad. Science. 11711975-11980 (2020).

    CAS article Google Scholar

  • Patricola, CM & Wehner, MF Anthropogenic influences on large tropical cyclone events. Nature 563339-346 (2018).

    ADS-CAS Article Google Scholar

  • Wang, SS, Zhao, L., Yoon, JH, Klotzbach, P. & Gillies, RR Quantitative attribution of climate impacts to the extreme rainfall of Hurricane Harvey in Texas. Vicinity. Resolution Latvian. 13054014 (2018).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Reed, KA, Stansfield, AM, Wehner, MF & Zarzycki, CM Projected attribution of human impact on Hurricane Florence. Science. adult 6eaaw9253 (2020).

    ADS-CAS Article Google Scholar

  • Reed, K., Wehner, MF, Stansfield, AM & Zarzycki, CM Anthropogenic impact on the extreme rainfall of Hurricane Dorian. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 102S9-S15 (2021).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Pritchard, H.D. & Turner, J. State of the global climate in 2020. 56 p., WMO no. 1264 (World Meteorological Organization, 2021).

  • Grey, WM Hurricanes: Their Formation, Structure, and Probable Role in the Tropical Circulation. Meteorology over the tropical oceans. 155-218 (Royal Meteorological Society, James Glaisher House, 1979).

  • Camargo, SJ, Tippett, MK, Sobel, AH, Vecchi, GA & Zhao, M. Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HiRAM model. J. Clim. 279171-9196 (2014).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Wehner, MF, Zarzycki, CM & Patricola, C. Estimating the human influence on tropical cyclone intensity as climate changes. hurricane Climate. Change, (Springer, 2019) 4235-260 (2019).

    Google Scholar

  • Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D. & Davies, HC Surrogate climate change scenarios for regional climate models. Geophysics. Resolution Latvian. 23669-672 (1996).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Kay, JE et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 961333-1349 (2015).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Zarzycki, CM & Jablonowski, C. Experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using a variable-resolution global model. Monthly Weather Rev 1434012-4037 (2015).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Knutson, T. et al. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 101, E303-E322. 20 (2020).

    Article Google Scholar

  • Guzman, O. & Jiang, H. Global increase in tropical cyclone rain rate. nature communication, 125344 (2021).

  • Neale, RBet al. Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0). NCAR Tech. Notice NCAR/TN-486+ STR 11-12 (2010).

    Google Scholar

  • Zarzycki, CM et al. Aquaplanet experiments using CAM’s variable resolution dynamic core. J. Clim. 275481-5503 (2014).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Wehner, MF et al. The Effect of Horizontal Resolution on Simulation Quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1. J.Adv. Model. earth system 6980-997 (2014).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Zarzycki, CM & Jablonowski, C. A multidecadal simulation of Atlantic tropical cyclones using a variable-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model. J.Adv. Model. earth system 6805-828 (2014).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Stansfield, AM, Reed, KA, Zarzycki, CM, Ullrich, PA & Chavas, DR Variable-resolution assessment of tropical cyclone contribution to precipitation over the eastern United States and sensitivity to range extension. J. Hydrometeor. 211425-1445 (2020).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Ullrich, PA & Zarzycki, CM TempestExtremes: a framework for scale-independent pointwise feature tracking on unstructured grids. Geoscientific model development 101069-1090 (2017).

    ADS article Google Scholar

  • Ullrich, PA et al. TempestExtremes v2.1: a community framework for feature detection, tracking, and analysis in large datasets. Geoscientific model development 145023-5048 (2021).

    ADS article Google Scholar